In the 2012 Alberta Election, four-way splits could result in NDP gains

Alberta voters head to the polls a week from today.  With many predicting a fight between the two right-wing parties, little attention is being paid to the possibly huge gains of the Alberta New Democratic Party lead by Brian Mason.

According to today's posting by Éric Grenier at threehundredeight.com, (awesome blog, by the way) Alberta's NDP is poised to take four seats, doubling their current standing.  If you look carefully at the seat projections, one will note some interesting numbers.  Below is a chart gleaned from the seat projections where I have ranked the seats from highest to lowest by projected popular vote:

EDMONTON-HIGHLANDS-NORWOOD	46.7	1
EDMONTON-STRATHCONA	44.5	2
EDMONTON-BEVERLY-CLAREVIEW	37.4	3
EDMONTON-CALDER	32.0	4
EDMONTON-CENTRE	25.4	5
WEST YELLOWHEAD	25.3	6
EDMONTON-GLENORA	24.4	7
EDMONTON-MANNING	23.5	8
EDMONTON-DECORE	21	9
LETHBRIDGE-WEST	20.3	10

 
If the NDP do win their four seats, then more than likely they would win the top four from the above list.  However, I included six more ridings which could possibly be in play.  Why these six ridings? Consider the fact that four way splits may happen between the Conservatives, Wildrose, Liberals and the NDP.  A party could in theory win with 25% plus one of the vote in a riding.  Therefore, we cannot ignore those ridings where a party holds a projected 20% of the vote.

Another point of interest is that the NDP is showing strength outside of their traditional stronghold of Edmonton.  West Yellowhead, for example appears at number six on the above list.  And after reading this post on rabble.ca, it is not so far fetched that Lethbridge-West may be a surprise pick up for the NDP.

The rest of the ridings paint an unexpected picture as well.  In past elections, it was expected that NDP support in most of Alberta's provincial ridings would register in the single digits.  If registering the support in the teens (between 10 and 19.9%) is considered a fair and respectable turnout, then Mr. Grenier's recent seat projections show that 26 ridings showed NDP support at between 10% and 19.9%.  This is an increase from Grenier's predictions last week which show 16 ridings falling into this category.

Take a look:

CALGARY-FORT	18.2	11
EDMONTON-GOLD BAR	17.3	12
EDMONTON-ELLERSLIE	17.0	13
WETASKIWIN-CAMROSE	16.5	14
GRANDE PRAIRIE-SMOKY	16.0	15
LAC LA BICHE-ST. PAUL-TWO HILLS	15.9	16
EDMONTON-MILL WOODS	15.8	17
GRANDE PRAIRIE-WAPITI	15.8	18
ATHABASCA-STURGEON-REDWATER	15.2	19
DUNVEGAN-CENTRAL PEACE-NOTLEY	14.9	20
DRAYTON VALLEY-DEVON	14.9	21
CALGARY-KLEIN	14.7	22
EDMONTON-MEADOWLARK	13.1	23
LETHBRIDGE-EAST	13.0	24
FORT MCMURRAY-CONKLIN	12.9	25
PEACE RIVER	12.7	26
LESSER SLAVE LAKE	12.6	27
RED DEER-NORTH	11.8	28
EDMONTON-RIVERVIEW	11.7	29
FORT SASKATCHEWAN-VEGREVILLE	11.3	30
EDMONTON-CASTLE DOWNS	11.1	31
EDMONTON-MILL CREEK	11.0	32
EDMONTON-RUTHERFORD	10.2	33
BONNYVILLE-COLD LAKE	10.2	34
INNISFAIL-SYLVAN LAKE	10.1	35
BARRHEAD-MORINVILLE-WESTLOCK	10.0	36

While many of these ridings are in Edmonton, the remainder are in so-called Wildrose or Conservative strongholds.  With the collapsing Liberal vote and given the volatility of the electorate, nothing can be written in stone yet - including the current theme that the Wildrose party is in control.  And before one scoffs at the idea of more people voting NDP, recall that the NDP formed the Official Opposition in 1986 with 16 seats, two which came from Calgary.

I accept the fact that, province-wide, the fight is between the two right-wing parties.  However, one cannot deny that at the very least the Alberta NDP will have a significant impact in more than a handful of ridings.  The impact will range from playing the "spoiler" to out right victory.

This race is not over yet.

"Accord" - A recylced word on May 3, 2011

Given the fact that we're headed to a minority parliament  - (again!) - we all need to take a deep breath and look back a mere 26 years ago to May 3, 1985.  That's when the Ontario Progressive Conservatives formed a short-lived minority government only to be replaced by the David Peterson Liberals.

This was made possible by the Ontario New Democrats led by current Liberal MP Bob Rae.  Last year, Mr. Rae posted this walk down memory lane.  He concluded with the following:

In a parliamentary system elections produce a parliament, and parliament makes a government.  That was the lesson learned in 1985.  Prattle about “winning a mandate” with less than a majority in parliament is just that – partisan spin, all sound and fury, signifying nothing.  It is a lesson worth remembering.

The Liberals have said "no" to a coalition.  If they keep their word, they'll make a deal with the New Democrats and Bloc Quebecois.  Folks may not like it - particularly the Conservatives - but that's the way democracy works.

Vivre l'Accord!

Best Political Ads - Canada's Federal Election 2011

As Canadians follow the current federal election, partisanship I am sure can be set aside when voting for the best ad of the campaign.  Watch below and anyone with a sense of humour would agree that it was worth the 15 seconds - and you don't need to understand a word of French either.

And I'm not much of a dog lover but this one comes in 2nd.

Any suggestions for ad that can give these two a run for their money?